A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
